Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 23 2023 07:57:27

ACUS03 KWNS 230757
SWODY3
SPC AC 230756

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level low initially over western CO is forecast to evolve
into a shortwave trough and accelerate eastward toward the central
Plains on Saturday. A front extending from near deep south TX
eastward over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move slowly
northward through the day/evening, with richer low-level moisture
returning to near coastal areas. The front will remain displaced
well south of the ejecting upper-level trough, but a weak
southern-stream shortwave may help to induce frontal-wave
development near the upper TX coast by the end of the period.

In response to increasing moisture and development of modest MUCAPE,
elevated convection may develop north of the front near the
middle/upper TX coastal plain Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. With generally weak midlevel lapse rates, equilibrium-level
temperatures may remain relatively warm, which could tend to limit
lightning potential. A small general thunderstorm area has been
included near the coast, where buoyancy may become sufficient to
support sporadic lightning flashes with the strongest convection.

...Dean.. 11/23/2023

$$

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