Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 22 2023 16:27:54

ACUS01 KWNS 221627
SWODY1
SPC AC 221626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Coastal North and South Carolina...
Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front
currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of
higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been
observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern,
Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures
remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the
vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an
upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast
this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and
40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of
stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate
coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears
to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed
with this outlook.

Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in
advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally
stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the
CONUS.

...Bunting/Flournoy.. 11/22/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.