Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 22 2023 12:48:51

ACUS01 KWNS 221248
SWODY1
SPC AC 221247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and localized damaging-gust threat are possible this
morning across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Outer
Banks.

....Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will remain in place through
the period, except for a split-flow regime around a cut-off low over
northwestern MX.  Farther northeast, a nearly closed 500-mb low was
apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the Mid-South, anchoring
an intense shortwave trough that extended south-southwestward over
parts of LA.  The low and trough are pivoting eastward and should
cross the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians today, reaching
the NC/SC Piedmont by 00Z.  The perturbation then should race
offshore.

At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 11Z from NJ to a
frontal wave over north-central NC, then across central SC, eastern
GA, the FL coastal-bend area, and northeastern Gulf.  The front is
expected to move offshore from NC around 17-18Z, while crossing
parts of north FL.  The front should reach central/southwestern FL
around 00Z, and move off south FL and the Keys by 12Z.

....Eastern NC...
A marginal tornado and severe-wind threat remains over this area for
a few more hours, especially ahead of the front, and perhaps until
convection along the front passes.  See SPC mesoscale discussion
2285 for near-term details.

The approaching shortwave trough and related mass response may
increase both low-level lift and large-scale ascent over the area
through midday, while maintaining somewhat veered but enlarged
low-level hodographs (as seen in the 12Z MHX RAOB), along with
moisture transport/theta-e advection near the coast.  Meanwhile,
strengthening mid/upper winds will help to offset some veering of
surface flow in maintaining favorable deep shear for supercells,
and/or organized line(s) of convection with embedded areas of at
least transient rotation.  Messy convective mode and lack of greater
buoyancy (due to weak deep-layer lapse rates) over land will be
limiting factors for severe potential.

...Edwards/Broyles.. 11/22/2023

$$

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