Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 22 2023 05:25:20

ACUS01 KWNS 220525
SWODY1
SPC AC 220523

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible this
morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks.

....Eastern NC...

Upper low along the MO/AR border is digging southeast in line with
latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the
southern Appalachians by 18z as a 90+kt speed max translates across
GA into SC. Subsequent movement will result in the short wave moving
off the middle Atlantic Coast around 23/03z. Pronounced surface
front will extend from southeast VA-central NC-coastal SC at the
start of the period, and surface winds will veer quickly as the
front moves off the Outer Banks region by 18z. Prior to frontal
passage, weak buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector as dew
points gradually increase to 65-67F range. Forecast soundings
exhibit very moist profiles with strong shear. Given the expected
increase in large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection will
easily develop along/ahead of the wind shift. While environmental
shear favors supercells, primary storm mode should be clusters and
line segments; although, a few supercells are possible. Gusty winds,
and perhaps a brief tornado, are the main threats during the first 6
hours of the period.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 11/22/2023

$$

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