Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 22 2023 00:37:21

ACUS01 KWNS 220037
SWODY1
SPC AC 220035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, may occur
across parts of the Southeast States tonight.

....01z Update...

Primary short-wave trough is ejecting into the lower OH Valley early
this evening as a secondary speed max digs towards northwest AR.
This southern short wave will sharpen as it advances into the
mid-South late tonight. 500mb flow will increase ahead of this
feature across the central Gulf States with a corridor of strong
flow expected to extend into the middle Atlantic. This evolution
should result in a weak surface low evolving along the southern
fringe of the Appalachians then tracking toward the Delmarva by
sunrise. As a result, boundary-layer modification is expected across
the Carolinas tonight as southern influence of a strong LLJ shifts
toward the middle Atlantic Coast.

Net result will be modest air mass destabilization such that a few
robust storms could develop within a strongly sheared environment. A
narrow band of organized convection currently extends from the FL
Panhandle-southeast AL-central GA-northwest SC. This reflects
somewhat stronger large-scale forcing that will shift east by
22/12z. Current thinking is similar to earlier thoughts regarding
the potential for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Updraft
intensity should gradually weaken across the SLGT risk this evening
as large-scale forcing shifts downstream.

...Darrow.. 11/22/2023

$$

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