Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 21 2023 17:00:19

ACUS02 KWNS 211700
SWODY2
SPC AC 211658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NC...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and a localized severe gust are possible on
Wednesday morning across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks.

....Eastern NC...
A mid-level vorticity max on the backside of a broad trough over the
central states will dig southeast from the Lower MO Valley to the
Deep South by Wednesday morning and then eject eastward and move off
the Carolina coast by evening. The surface cold front will be
displaced well east of this feature, likely in vicinity of the NC
coastal plain at 12Z. In the warm conveyor ahead of the front, a
broad swath of lower-topped convection and deeper convective
elements will be ongoing from the GA to southeast VA coast.

The prefrontal environment across eastern NC will be characterized
by rich low-level moisture and strong low-level to deep-layer shear,
but poor lapse rates and widespread precipitation will limit
destabilization prior to frontal passage. The potential for
organized storm structures within this environment remains uncertain
due to the meager instability. But a transient supercell or
stronger line segment remains possible, with an attendant threat
of a brief tornado and locally damaging wind prior to midday.

...Grams.. 11/21/2023

$$

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