Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 21 2023 09:15:49

ACUS48 KWNS 210915
SWOD48
SPC AC 210914

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe-thunderstorm potential still appears limited through the
extended range. While the typical spread is noted regarding
synoptic-scale details, guidance generally depicts the persistence
of broad upper-level troughing over most of the CONUS, with periodic
cold frontal passages tending to limit inland moisture transport
from the Gulf of Mexico.

Frontal wave development still appears possible on D4/Friday across
the Gulf of Mexico, which would move eastward and bring some
thunderstorm potential into parts of the FL Peninsula. However, with
limited upper-level support, this development is expected to remain
weak, and the potential for organized convection currently appears
limited.

Richer low-level moisture may return to areas near the TX Gulf Coast
over the weekend, in response to a deep upper-level trough
approaching the central CONUS. However, stronger large-scale ascent
will likely be displaced well north of the warm front, with only
weak surface low development expected near deep south TX before the
next cold front surges southward early next week.

...Dean.. 11/21/2023

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