Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 21 2023 07:00:18

ACUS02 KWNS 210700
SWODY2
SPC AC 210658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
NC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning across
eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Locally damaging gusts
and a brief tornado are possible.

....Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the eastern
CONUS on Wednesday. Latest guidance depicts a notable embedded
shortwave that will move eastward from the TN Valley toward the
Carolinas through the day. The primary surface cyclone is expected
to move from near the Mid Atlantic coast northeastward toward Nova
Scotia by early Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will move
through eastern NC, where some isolated severe threat may persist
early in the forecast period. Generally weak frontal convection will
be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula.

....Eastern NC...
A Marginal Risk has been included for eastern NC, as a continuation
of the conditional severe threat that may begin late in the
D1/Tuesday period. Most recent guidance suggests that the cold front
will not clear the Outer Banks until around 15Z Wednesday morning,
with a slightly later frontal passage possible if a surface wave
develops along the front in response to the approaching shortwave
trough. The prefrontal environment will be characterized by rich
low-level moisture and strong low-level and deep-layer shear, but
poor lapse rates and widespread precipitation will limit
destabilization prior to frontal passage. The potential for
organized storm structures within this environment remains uncertain
due to the limited instability, but a transient supercell or
stronger line segment cannot be ruled out, with an attendant threat
of a brief tornado and locally damaging wind.

...Dean.. 11/21/2023

$$

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