Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2280
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 21 2023 05:53:48

ACUS11 KWNS 210553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210553=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into parts of eastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong may produce strong gusts or even a brief
tornado, but the overall threat in the near term is not expected to
warrant an additional watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms have aggregated into a broken line from southern
MS into southeast LA, with indications of gusts winds at times.
Little rotation or supercell structures have been observed in the
past hour, likely due to gradually veering low-level winds and
decreasing ascent overall.

Effective SRH around 300 m2/s2, a moist boundary layer and 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE still may yield a supercell, but perhaps short lived,
with brief tornado potential. However, the overall threat does not
appear high enough for an additional tornado watch at this time.

Given the moist air mass and 40-50 kt low-level jet, convective
trends will continue to be monitored for any increase in intensity
overnight.

...Jewell.. 11/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7u5YusK7tqj19r3PD9TBCrJ_T3MMU0eDY_AihJEhRs2134arM-P-HxB6wZwuyI-vFCWloAAi9=
rbrVwekPpxkkDJU0pw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29729121 29909118 30809039 31518967 31848942 32058893
            32018860 31778833 31338816 30998826 30558861 29958960
            29759061 29739114 29729121=20


=3D =3D =3D
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