Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 21 2023 00:57:44

ACUS01 KWNS 210057
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, scattered damaging
thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail remain possible tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

....01z Update...

Primary change to 20z outlook is to lower severe probabilities along
the cool side of the progressive cold front.

Upper low centered over southeast KS continues its slow eastward
progression toward southern MO. As a result, high-level diffluent
flow has strengthened over the Gulf States. This appears partly
responsible for a corridor of severe deep convection that currently
extends from eastern LA into central MS. Within this corridor,
scattered supercells are observed, at least a few of these are
potentially tornadic. 00z sounding from JAN exhibited modest MLCAPE
(~800 J/kg) with very strong surface-6km shear (70kt), and 0-3km SRH
around 350 m2/s2. Some additional air mass recovery is expected
immediately downstream of this activity into western AL as primary
surface low lifts northeast into the OH Valley. While the primary
dynamic forcing will gradually shift north, southern portions of a
strong LLJ will shift east overnight which should allow the
aforementioned corridor of severe to advance across MS into western
AL.

...Darrow.. 11/21/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.