Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2274
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 20 2023 20:36:16

ACUS11 KWNS 202036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202035=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 711...

Valid 202035Z - 202200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including strong tornadoes, continues. Greatest near-term tornado
threat exists from far southeast Texas through west-central and
central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a complex pattern with
several different boundaries in place across far southeast TX and LA
this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been increasing along an axis of
pre-frontal convergence that exists just of ahead of the
eastward-progressing cold front. This pre-frontal trough exists
roughly from the central LA/TX border (about 40 miles southwest of
SHV) south-southwestward through Liberty County TX. Environment
ahead of this trough continues to destabilize amid low-level
moisture advection, with 70 deg F dewpoints in place ahead of this
axis across southeast TX and southwest LA.=20

This area of greater low-level moisture is advecting northward,
coincident with strengthening low-level flow. This strengthening
low-level flow is contributing to longer low-level hodographs and
greater storm-relative helicity. As such, an increase in tornadic
supercells appears possible over the next hour or two, particularly
from Jasper County TX northeastward into west-central/central LA.

...Mosier.. 11/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8tgqKv6q_htN1O83KxPG6Iq8RhZjmKjyarO0gFxtCBbVHzIFQAZd9jNqp7JHpBOq4QGCggR2N=
b_cuFTUYljHzK9ucVw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30059255 29829313 29789387 30049456 30529464 31499420
            32119397 32519324 32469247 32279218 31889206 31399201
            30509230 30059255=20


=3D =3D =3D
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