Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 20 2023 17:29:44 ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the morning into the afternoon. The potential for locally damaging winds and a couple brief tornadoes will shift farther north and east Tuesday afternoon into early morning Wednesday across most of Georgia, the Carolinas, and far southern Virginia. ....Southeast States... While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly divorced from the northeast Gulf Coast region on Tuesday, deep convection will likely persist through the day within a confluent regime along the composite front/large-scale convective outflow from D1. This convection should initially affect parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle and may regenerate during the day within any pockets of modest diabatic surface heating. Instability will remain weak with MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg away from the immediate coast. This should tend to limit storm intensity, but favorable boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasional supercell structures, continuing from late D1 on Tuesday morning and lingering into the afternoon. With time, further decoupling of large-scale ascent and very strong low-level shear from the meager instability plume should yield more of a low-probability tornado threat farther north and east in GA, eventually spreading into parts of the Carolina/far south VA Piedmont on Tuesday evening and night. However, given the minimal surface-based instability across these regions, locally damaging winds may be the main threat from lower-topped convection. A separate area of isolated supercell potential may approach the eastern NC coast early Wednesday morning where somewhat richer moisture off the Atlantic might yield scant surface-based instability. A relative uptick in the tornado/wind threat is possible over eastern NC and the Outer Banks as this occurs, though confidence is below average regarding evolution of the upper trough and strength of large-scale ascent across this region during the overnight period. ...Grams.. 11/20/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .