Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 20 2023 08:12:12

ACUS03 KWNS 200812
SWODY3
SPC AC 200811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
Guidance varies with respect to upper-level pattern evolution on
Wednesday, with recent GFS runs and the 20/00Z ECMWF depicting a
relatively amplified shortwave trough moving eastward from the TN
Valley toward the Carolinas, while other guidance depicts a broader
positively tilted trough moving offshore earlier in the forecast
period. Despite these differences, most guidance agrees that a cold
front will be near or just offshore of coastal NC at the start of
the period Wednesday morning, with the trailing portion of the front
expected to move across the FL Peninsula through the day.

....Eastern NC and the Outer Banks...
While some severe threat could evolve late in the D2/Tuesday period
across eastern NC into the Outer Banks, most guidance suggests the
effective warm sector will be very near the coast or offshore by the
start of the D3/Wednesday period. As a result, severe probabilities
were not included with this outlook. However, if the front is slower
than currently anticipated, then some threat for isolated damaging
wind and/or a brief tornado could briefly persist after 12Z
Wednesday morning, within a weakly unstable but moist and strongly
sheared environment.

...Dean.. 11/20/2023

$$

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