Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 20 2023 01:00:07

ACUS01 KWNS 200100
SWODY1
SPC AC 200058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail may occur with evening/overnight
thunderstorms in parts of central and eastern Oklahoma.

....01z Update...
Evening water vapor imagery showed a broad mid-level trough centered
over the Rockies with several well-defined shortwave troughs
embedded within a strengthening basal speed max. As the first of
these shortwave troughs departs the southern Plains into the
Midwest, a second shortwave over the TX Panhandle will push eastward
into OK late this evening and overnight. An initial lee low over the
TX Panhandle will continue drawing mid 50s f surface dewpoints
northward as it moves into central and eastern OK tonight. Cooling
aloft associated with the shortwave and strong diffluence/qg forcing
from the speed max should aid in scattered thunderstorm development
tonight over central OK. Area model soundings are not overly
impressive showing elevated MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg developing
beneath -18 to -20 C 500 mb temps beneath the western shortwave.
Moderate deep-layer shear may also support brief organization of any
stronger updrafts able to become established. A couple instances of
marginally severe hail are possible with storms beneath the cold
core aloft. However, confidence in severe coverage remains low given
the marginal thermodynamic environment.

Despite the uncertainty, a conditional risk for hail will
necessitate keeping the MRGL risk in place over central and eastern
OK. Opted for a slight southward expansion in severe probs for
recent Hi-Res guidance trending father south with the more robust
storms. Will also trim the northeastern most part of the MRGL where
vertical shear is expected to be much weaker well north of the speed
max.

...Lyons.. 11/20/2023

$$

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