Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 19 2023 19:42:05

ACUS01 KWNS 191942
SWODY1
SPC AC 191940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2023

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail may occur with evening/overnight
thunderstorms in parts of Oklahoma.

Overnight elevated thunderstorm threat remains on track. Trimmed the
western edge of general thunderstorm line across southwest Utah and
northwest Arizona in the wake of the mid-level shortwave trough.

...Bentley.. 11/19/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023/

....Central/northern Oklahoma...
Multiple, mostly low amplitude, mid-level perturbations were
observed rotating around a large upper trough over the
western/central U.S. as of 16z. A broad, meridionally elongated,
area of surface low pressure extending from western KS southward
into the TX Panhandle late this morning will gradually consolidate
over southwest OK vicinity through tonight. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will continue today across portions of KS,
OK and northern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and
aided by ascent with lead impulses. With time, cooling mid-level
temperatures as the upper trough approaches and continued low-level
warm/moist advection will support MUCAPE of 500-locally 1000 J/kg
over OK this evening and tonight. Effective shear values of 30-40
kts will lead to sufficient updraft organization for a few stronger
elevated storms to be capable of marginally severe hail.

$$

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