Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 19 2023 08:27:31

FOUS30 KWBC 190827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma...

Model QPF still suggests that a non-zero threat for excessive
rainfall exists across south-central to southeast Kansas and
north-central to northeast Oklahoma late as strengthening mid to
upper level dynamics are trying to draw favorable
moisture/instability ingredients into the region ahead of a
sharpening mid-level trough later this evening into the early
morning hours on Monday.  Precipitable water values only approach
1.3 inches and fairly quick steering flow/cell motion vectors,
rain-rates and totals are more likely than not to reach even the
naturally lower FFG values of the Flint Hills of SE Kansas into
Osage county, OK (<2"/hr). still see the risk of excessive
rainfall being non-zero but less than 5 percent. So an incident of
flooding can not be fully ruled out, though most rain will be
highly beneficial.

Bann




Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8j5HjtTWbVVF-J-5QpsdKb33wRQI0k9M5zS-LWQXLdWM=
f9y6GAIgz00UG79obZkZ_9c0N_AK7mBhQHSD7rRX7NAC3Lw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8j5HjtTWbVVF-J-5QpsdKb33wRQI0k9M5zS-LWQXLdWM=
f9y6GAIgz00UG79obZkZ_9c0N_AK7mBhQHSD7rRXuLQCm_w$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8j5HjtTWbVVF-J-5QpsdKb33wRQI0k9M5zS-LWQXLdWM=
f9y6GAIgz00UG79obZkZ_9c0N_AK7mBhQHSD7rRXYTjvIXw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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