Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 19 2023 07:02:34 ACUS02 KWNS 190702 SWODY2 SPC AC 190700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ....Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ....East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ...Dean.. 11/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .