Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 19 2023 00:15:03

ACUS01 KWNS 190014
SWODY1
SPC AC 190013

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

....Discussion...
A large scale upper trough over the West will be the primary focus
for a few thunderstorms through tonight, with a lead wave moving
from NM into the southern Plains, and a strong feature into the
Great Basin.

Isolated convection now over NM is expected to increase in coverage
late tonight from the TX Panhandle into parts of KS and OK, where
elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg is forecast. This elevated
destabilization and lift will be aided by cooling aloft and
increasing theta-e advection around 700 mb. Severe hail is not
anticipated given weak CAPE values, despite favorable deep-layer
shear to sustain a few cells.

Elsewhere, large-scale ascent will increase into the Great Basin
overnight with cooling aloft and a cold front pushing across NV and
toward western UT. MUCAPE on the order of 50-250 J/kg may yield
sporadic lightning flashes.

...Jewell.. 11/19/2023

$$

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