Subj : HVYRAIN: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 19:07:41

FOUS30 KWBC 181907
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Nov 18 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma...

There remains a non-zero threat for excessive rainfall across
south-central to southeast Kansas and north-central to northeast
Oklahoma as strengthening mid to upper level dynamics are trying
to draw favorable moisture/instability ingredients into the region
ahead of a sharpening mid-level trough late Sunday into Monday.=20
This upper-level low will support strong cyclogenesis across the
Southern Plains, while defining a sharpening dry line and strong
southerly flow. Available moisture is lagging the increased wind
flow, with total PWats only expected to reach 1.2-1.3" through
late afternoon across central OK.  A dryline bulge across NW
Oklahoma is expected to support stronger moisture flux convergence
for some scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms across the
area of concern through late evening into the overnight hours of
Monday.  However, with the lack of moisture loading into the
column combined with fairly quick steering flow/cell motion
vectors, rain-rates and totals are more likely than not to reach
even the naturally lower FFG values of the Flint Hills of SE
Kansas into Osage county, OK (<2"/hr).  12z Hi-Res Convective
Allowing Models do hint at spots of intense rates but generally
run in the 1.5-1.75"/hr range with similar (or less) totals.=20

Orientation of the moisture flux convergence near the dry-line
bulge may support upstream regeneration for possible training
environment. However, longer term drought conditions are in place
with soil moisture values in the top 40cm well below average.  So
only risk would be very intense short-term rates where soils are
hydrophobic do to drought conditions or urban environment.  So all
in all, the risk will fall short of the 5% probability threshold
for delineating a risk category, but an incident of flooding can
not be fully ruled out, though most rain will be highly beneficial.

Gallina


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4NQdIm13wUWCVLue-cUKcn_7VDouf5eIS7IcrtcKxMpB=
IiLPNOh0KncF6XeHnMaePZGoWqW8Cv386DMP45wFIzjskwk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4NQdIm13wUWCVLue-cUKcn_7VDouf5eIS7IcrtcKxMpB=
IiLPNOh0KncF6XeHnMaePZGoWqW8Cv386DMP45wF_74QPJo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4NQdIm13wUWCVLue-cUKcn_7VDouf5eIS7IcrtcKxMpB=
IiLPNOh0KncF6XeHnMaePZGoWqW8Cv386DMP45wFMu0c960$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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