Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 16:32:29

ACUS01 KWNS 181632
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

....Discussion...
Aside from the potential for a lightning flash or two near (but
primarily off) the eastern Florida coast, greater lightning coverage
will remain confined to southwestern and, later, south-central
portions of the country.  This convection will be associated with
the continued advance/evolution of large-scale upper troughing
across the western half of the country (and, downstream, the
associated low-level warm advection that will occur later in the
period in tandem with low-level jet development over western
portions of the Plains).

Beneath the trough during the afternoon, low-level and deep-layer
wind profiles across the Central Valley of California will remain
conditionally supportive of organized convection.  However,
widespread cloud cover persists across the area, which should remain
the case through the afternoon, when low-level shear will become
maximized (followed by a weakening into the early evening hours).
As such, destabilization potential will remain minimal -- which is
supported by new/12Z model guidance showing minimal buoyancy at
best.  Thus, any potential for a brief tornado appears too low to
include in an areal outlook.

...Goss/Bentley.. 11/18/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.