Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 09:24:54 ACUS48 KWNS 180924 SWOD48 SPC AC 180923 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....D4/Tuesday - Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas... Considerable spread is present within extended-range guidance by D4/Tuesday with regard to the synoptic pattern. In general, the primary surface cyclone is expected move quickly northeastward from the lower/mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes, as the trailing cold front moves through the Southeast. Modestly organized convection may persist along/ahead of the front through the day across parts of AL/GA, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. However, limited instability and weakening large-scale ascent in the wake of the departing cyclone may tend to the limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe threat. Tuesday night, prefrontal southerly flow will support low-level moisture return into parts of the Carolinas. This may be accompanied by increasingly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but most guidance suggests that instability will remain quite limited, and the potential for organized deep convection remains quite uncertain. ....D5/Wednesday and beyond... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes quite low by D5/Wednesday and beyond. The 18/00Z GFS is a notable outlier in depicting a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and surface cyclone moving through parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. While this scenario would potentially support some severe-thunderstorm potential, this solution has little support from other guidance at this time. Most guidance suggests limited severe-thunderstorm potential through the end of the week, in the wake of a cold-frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. ...Dean.. 11/18/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .