Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 07:02:26

ACUS02 KWNS 180702
SWODY2
SPC AC 180700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with a threat of isolated hail may develop across
parts of Oklahoma on Sunday.

....Synopsis...
A complex mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift
eastward into the central CONUS on Sunday, as an upper ridge builds
into the West. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave is
forecast to evolve into a mid/upper-level cyclone somewhere over the
north-central Great Plains, as a trailing shortwave moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Plains as it pivots through the base
of the trough. A third vigorous shortwave is forecast to dig
southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners and
eventually the southern Rockies by Monday morning.

....Southern Plains...
Modest low-level moisture return is expected across parts of the
southern Plains through the day Sunday, as a surface cyclone
gradually deepens over the south-central High Plains and a trailing
dryline becomes established across far western OK into west-central
TX. However, guidance has generally trended toward weaker moisture
return during the day, resulting in only minimal destabilization and
limited potential for surface-based storm development.

While early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of
OK and north TX, and redevelopment of elevated convection may occur
during the evening across mainly parts of OK, confidence in the
potential for organized severe-thunderstorm development has
decreased. The strongest elevated storms could pose a threat of
small hail, with a nonzero threat of marginally severe hail across
parts of OK, in closer proximity to steeper midlevel lapse rates and
colder temperatures aloft.

...Dean.. 11/18/2023

$$

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