Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 00:52:55

FOUS30 KWBC 180052
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 18 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

....01Z Update...

The Marginal Risk area in Florida has been removed with this
update as any linger shower activity is now off the coast, and
should continue to gradually drift east and away from the coast
overnight.

In California, the flow with the latest area of rain moving into
the coast is aligned more south to north, which should allow for
the rainfall activity associated with the advancing front to
continue moving orthogonal to the coast and adjacent mountains,
nominally increasing the flash flooding risk. As such, the
Marginal Risk was extended east to include most of Ventura County.
So far, however, rainfall rates have been meager, but increasing
lift and nominally better instability may allow for some brief 1/2
to 1 inch per hour rainfall rates, which in addition to topography
may cause a localized flash flooding risk through tonight. For the
short-term outlook, please see MPD 1179, located here
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwa=
tch_mpd_multi.php?md__;!!DZ3fjg!_chfbtykabN71KfaVQ67B0Q-RvHliU6aZwzrBEE3vNA=
veZcEe2PzlFRhuTZ_6Vve3HL6WNCcKptrQIg45V6x0iZ6Oec$=20
=3D1179&yr=3D2023, which is in effect through 0530Z for more details.

Wegman



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_chfbtykabN71KfaVQ67B0Q-RvHliU6aZwzrBEE3vNAv=
eZcEe2PzlFRhuTZ_6Vve3HL6WNCcKptrQIg45V6xY8qyZSo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_chfbtykabN71KfaVQ67B0Q-RvHliU6aZwzrBEE3vNAv=
eZcEe2PzlFRhuTZ_6Vve3HL6WNCcKptrQIg45V6xi05VZxk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_chfbtykabN71KfaVQ67B0Q-RvHliU6aZwzrBEE3vNAv=
eZcEe2PzlFRhuTZ_6Vve3HL6WNCcKptrQIg45V6xmrt73JE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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