Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 18 2023 00:32:23

ACUS01 KWNS 180032
SWODY1
SPC AC 180030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms are most likely late tonight over central Arizona.

....Discussion...
Meager moisture ahead of a cold front has aided sporadic lightning
flashes this evening over eastern KY, where diurnal effects have led
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. This activity should wane through the
evening, as the upper trough passes by and the boundary layer cools.

Far to the west, lightning activity has decreased over the ocean,
with only a few flashes noted over the past hour. Cold temperatures
aloft will however maintain a weakly unstable environment supporting
convective showers.

Farther south into AZ, a greater threat of thunderstorms is
forecast, as the nose of a 70 kt midlevel speed max approaches from
the west. Increasing southwest flow with result in both increasing
midlevel moisture and lift across the Mogollon Rim. As such,
scattered storms are likely after about 08Z. Long hodographs as well
as steepening midlevel lapse rates may support cells capable of
small/non-severe hail toward morning.

...Jewell.. 11/18/2023

$$

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