Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 17 2023 20:01:54

ACUS01 KWNS 172001
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 11/17/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/

....Discussion...
A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern
North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface
cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country.  By
late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the
southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing.

Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to
weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period.

Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a
weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain
confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore.

Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians today.  Overnight, as the front
crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur
near the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and
Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system.  In all of these
areas, severe weather is not expected.

$$

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