Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 17 2023 08:23:16 ACUS03 KWNS 170823 SWODY3 SPC AC 170822 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of Oklahoma into north Texas, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough that emerges over the central High Plains late on D2/Saturday is forecast to slow down and potentially evolve into a midlevel cyclone over the central Plains on Sunday. A vigorous upstream shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region and southern Rockies by early Monday morning. A surface cyclone initially over the central High Plains is forecast to shift slowly southeastward toward western OK, with a developing dryline expected to extend southward into parts of northwest and west-central TX. ....Southern Plains... While favorable wind profiles will overspread the warm sector across parts of TX/OK on Sunday, most guidance suggests that diurnal heating/destabilization will be quite limited east of the dryline, rendering severe-thunderstorm potential uncertain. East of the surface cyclone and developing dryline, modest low-level moisture return is expected, with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints extending into western/central OK, and low 60s F dewpoints potentially advancing into north TX. However, with initially cool conditions expected in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, diurnal heating may be hampered by early-day precipitation and persistent low cloudiness. MLCAPE could approach 500 J/kg immediately east of the dryline, where modest heating is possible, but residual capping may tend to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. A supercell or two (with an attendant large-hail threat) cannot be ruled out near the dryline in the presence of favorable deep-layer shear, but confidence in more than isolated coverage is low. Regardless of any diurnal surface-based storm development (or lack thereof), an increase in elevated convection will be possible Sunday evening within a low-level warm advection regime. Cold temperatures aloft, combined with favorable deep-layer shear, could support an isolated hail threat with the strongest elevated storms across parts of central/eastern OK and potentially north TX. ...Dean.. 11/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .