Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 17 2023 05:23:49

ACUS01 KWNS 170523
SWODY1
SPC AC 170522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today.

....Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS
Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough
with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ,
providing lift and cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high
pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As
such, little moisture or instability will be available for
thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible
in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and
perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated
CAPE may develop.

To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely
over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few
hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but
pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped
cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected
cellular storm mode.

...Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023

$$

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