Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 16 2023 16:31:22

ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida
Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely
ruled out.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second
mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While
surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest
moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should
remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm
potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions
of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough
(and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this
feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should
limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of
thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized
thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a
surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline.

....Southeastern Florida Peninsula...
A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the
southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb
flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of
Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This
strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with
some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though,
with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface
dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE.
Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing
along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast
portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the
aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of
the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging
gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category
1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook.

...Squitieri.. 11/16/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.