Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 16 2023 05:30:19

ACUS01 KWNS 160530
SWODY1
SPC AC 160528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida
Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain
offshore.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains
and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting
with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry
trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high
will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and
gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air
mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to
scattered thunderstorms.

Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast,
as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally
favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming
large storm clustering over the water, which would affect
convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in
the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should
support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized.

...Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023

$$

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