Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 16 2023 04:07:06 AWUS01 KWNH 160406 FFGMPD FLZ000-161005- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1105 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...Southeast FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160405Z - 161005Z SUMMARY...Heavy to extreme rainfall will continue to threaten the highly urbanized I-95 corridor of southeast FL overnight, with areas of significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding likely to continue. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show a very well-organized and concentrated area of heavy to locally extreme rainfall over the I-95 urban corridor of southeast FL from Fort Lauderdale southward down through Miami and Homestead. The convection driving this rainfall continues to be facilitated by a mesoscale area of low pressure advancing slowly northeastward through the middle and upper FL Keys along a frontal zone draped across the region. Areas near and to the northeast of this low center up along coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward counties are seeing very strong surface moisture convergence and enhanced frontogenetic forcing which coupled with proximity of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is generating sustainable convection with occasionally extreme rainfall rates. The rainfall rates over the last hour have come down somewhat, but the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates still routinely reaching into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range over the I-95 urban corridor from Fort Lauderdale down through Miami and Homestead. GC-MRMS storm totals for the event are running very high over southern parts of Miami-Dade counties with amounts running anywhere from 5 to 10+ inches. Storm totals closer into the I-95 metropolitan corridors are running generally as high as 3 to 6 inches to this point with locally heavier amounts. The 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs generally favor an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts going through late tonight for the aforementioned major metropolitan areas as very heavy and concentrated rains with the slowly evolving coastal low center continue. These additional rains may allow for some storm totals to locally approach or exceed 12 inches. Areas of significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding will continue overnight from these additional heavy to extreme rainfall amounts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EOG3L_6KWrEyfUuigKsDhnOvvh-8JWv1JdIlDqJaMJq3wBnRg6FhopaYj7tY-CuT14s= zJrjBhX3-bi9N9dNc8NHSO0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 26468013 26158004 25538020 25158040 25148062=20 25338076 25798069 26278046=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .