Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 15 2023 22:01:26 AWUS01 KWNH 152201 FFGMPD FLZ000-160400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...Urban Corridor of Southeast FL and the Upper Keys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152200Z - 160400Z SUMMARY...Localized but highly impactful flash flooding likely from the Upper Keys north through West Palm Beach through this evening as storms capable of rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour repeat onshore. DISCUSSION...A mesolow and associated front that has been stalled over the Florida Keys today will begin to lift northeastward up the Keys and through the Florida Straits through tonight. The front and low are lifting an airmass with PWATs to 2.25 inches, providing forcing for numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Keys and much of south Florida. As the low wraps up and intensifies overnight south and east of the Keys, a more concentrated area of heavy rain, that has already begun developing will also lift northeastward over the urban corridor. This will locally enhance rainfall rates over the area. A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected throughout this region, however where the most persistent thunderstorms repeat, there is potential for up to 10 inches of rain, which may fall from storms producing up to 3 inches of rain per hour. Should the most persistent rains fall over an urban center, which is an increasing possibility this evening through the overnight, then locally highly impactful and significant flash flooding can be expected. There remains considerable uncertainty as to where those highest totals will be realized, as they will occur within mesoscale bands of repeating storms, which are very difficult to predict. This will result in large disparities in rainfall totals over a small area. The heavy rain is expected to continue beyond the period of this MPD for much of this region, so expect an updated MPD by 04Z/11pm. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_yyCDfNYKZJ41x6pmjHOt649e3l5Wz00vb8Q-Ne9GHMzFfdn61x6oexVD02HLruJp8T= Qw_CMtKUazhwz71Q77s3fIM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 26878030 26837996 26667993 25668006 24968044=20 24758123 25098077 25338065 26008057 26548058=20 26838061=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .