Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2270
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 15 2023 21:03:16

ACUS11 KWNS 152103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152102=20
FLZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Areas affected...the Florida Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152102Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado/tornadic waterspout threat continues
across the Florida Keys area. Given the sparse and spatially
confined nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms, with several showing brief bouts
of low-level rotation, continue along and just south of the FL Keys
in proximity to a quasi-stationary surface boundary. To the
southwest of Key West, a small bow-echo signature continues to surge
quickly to the southeast with strong gust potential, and may
overturn the airmass/reduce instability along its way. Ahead of this
bow-echo feature, an MCV has materialized along and just north of
the aforementioned surface boundary and is likely benefiting from
locally stronger low-level shear. Semi-discrete cells within and
ahead of this MCV may encounter locally backed low-level
winds/enlarged hodographs, and an isolated supercellular/tornadic
waterspout remains possible with any of the stronger storms.

...Squitieri.. 11/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9oo1wilxshCZEniGw6S3YEjVcQ7686bZlsNWPyxgtXqpmOaprP7DNSyBSfZFro9RckXyVrB-5=
fHQtkIrPH-7u_0lfy4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24458230 24958151 25228075 25427983 25307945 24877935
            24417951 24108018 23998159 24028170 24458230=20


=3D =3D =3D
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