Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 15 2023 19:31:46

ACUS01 KWNS 151931
SWODY1
SPC AC 151930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out across portions of
the Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida this afternoon and
evening.

....Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 11/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023/

....Synopsis...
Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread much of the northern
CONUS today as a pronounced upper-level trough impinges on the
western U.S. and a more subtle mid-level shortwave overspreads the
southern FL Peninsula. Surface high pressure and associated cooler
air will remain in place across most of the Interior West to the
East Coast, suppressing thunderstorm potential. However, some
thunderstorm potential exists across parts of southern CA into the
Great Basin in advance of the approaching mid-level trough.
Thunderstorms should continue to develop through the period ahead of
a meandering surface low along the Gulf coastal waters, with
thunderstorm potential extending into the southern Florida
Peninsula.

....Florida Keys into extreme southern Florida...
Marginal buoyancy, in the form of tall/thin CAPE, remains in place
across the FL keys, and is mainly driven by mid 70s F surface
dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Through the day, the
approach of the subtle mid-level trough will encourage a low-level
mass response in the form of strengthening east-southeasterly 850 mb
winds, which will support modestly curved hodographs. As such, any
of the storms that can remain sustained within this zone of marginal
instability may pose a brief tornado risk this afternoon.

$$

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