Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2269
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 15 2023 17:51:45

ACUS11 KWNS 151751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151751=20
FLZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151751Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida
Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over
the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown
occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level
lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of
surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support
500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon.
Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which
would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the
stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit
at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or
tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the
afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a
Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4CG3T0y4US04jodbTBzwAxtIuhXxQpDEwS9wNhRjRqgIVpOUnNe4ZGGYhn38eoszn16wsKdfq=
kL3pj62ytnLm3M66dQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24518228 24678194 25028114 25218054 25158027 24908019
            24588039 24378086 24348145 24358194 24518228=20


=3D =3D =3D
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