Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 15 2023 10:05:42

ACUS48 KWNS 151005
SWOD48
SPC AC 151004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
.....Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Saturday and Saturday night.
Further west, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Desert Southwest on Saturday. Low-level moisture will return
northward ahead of the system on Sunday, with surface dewpoints
possibly reaching the 60s F across the southeastern third of Texas.
The airmass should be slow to destabilize during the day due to
widespread cloud cover. As a band of large-scale ascent moves into
the southern Plains, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop during the afternoon and evening from east Texas northward
into the Ark-La-Tex. An isolated severe threat will be possible with
these storms but weak instability could minimize any severe
potential.

An associated cold front is forecast to move eastward into the
Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, weak instability is
forecast to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley. The higher
quality moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, is
expected to remain confined to the central Gulf Coast. There could
be an isolated severe threat in the central Gulf Coast states during
the day. At this time, the severe potential is not expected to be
great enough for the addition of a threat area.

....Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorm
development will be possible on Tuesday from Florida northward into
the Carolinas. Although a moist airmass should be in place ahead of
the system on Tuesday, instability is forecast to remain weak across
the Southeast. This is expected to minimize the severe potential.

...Broyles.. 11/15/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.