Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 14 2023 00:29:03

ACUS01 KWNS 140028
SWODY1
SPC AC 140027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the
Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario.

....01z Update...

Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin
early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL
Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it
translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably
over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula
continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak
buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of
generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this
activity should remain quite sparse.

Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it
approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and
Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60
mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning
should hold over/near the warmer waters.

...Darrow.. 11/14/2023

$$

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