Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 19:56:29

ACUS01 KWNS 131956
SWODY1
SPC AC 131954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the
Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario.

....Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 11/13/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/

....Synopsis...
Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the
OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability
across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A
surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far
offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for
organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line
(though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest
cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake
Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a
couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air
advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline
may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight.

$$

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