Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 12:32:30

ACUS01 KWNS 131232
SWODY1
SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along portions of the
western/central Gulf Coast, a small part of the Florida Atlantic
Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Downstream of a weak mid-level trough over west TX and northern
Mexico, a surface front will remain over parts of the western and
northern Gulf of Mexico. Convective activity through the period will
primarily remain focused along/near the front and offshore of the
Gulf Coast. Still, some chance for elevated convection appears
possible as the shortwave trough moves eastward across TX through
tonight.

Showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the FL Atlantic
Coast. Poor lapse rates should inhibit most convection from becoming
deep enough to support charge separation and lighting. But, an
isolated thunderstorm or two may still occur though tonight in weak
easterly low-level flow.

A strong mid-level jet will move across the Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic today, with rather cold mid-level temperatures
overspreading the Lower Great Lakes. Corresponding steepening of
lapse rates over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario and the
development of weak instability may allow for isolated lighting
flashes with any convection that can develop and move across parts
of western NY.

...Gleason.. 11/13/2023

$$

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