Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 09:44:59

ACUS48 KWNS 130944
SWOD48
SPC AC 130943

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
As the southern-stream mid/upper-level trough discussed in the day-2
and day-3 outlooks approaches FL day 4, with a frontal zone moving
slowly northward over portions of the peninsula, thunder potential
should increase.  However, deep shear and low-level lift each appear
on the low part of the spectrum, suggesting any severe potential
near the front would be conditional and probably marginal. The
shortwave trough should pass FL thereafter.

A cut-off cyclone should remain off the CA Coast into day
5/18th-19th, before height falls to the north and northwest
encourage inland movement.  Progs thereafter show great variability
in the amplitude and geometry of this system as it moves across the
southwestern and eventually south-central CONUS.  Meanwhile,
low-level ridging within a slowly modifying continental/polar air
mass will prevail over the south-central CONUS, east of or beneath
500-mb anticyclonic flow, through at least most of day 5. This
should preclude favorable moisture return for severe potential ahead
of the Pacific perturbation.  The stronger, more-favorable ECMWF,
along with a small minority of GEFS members that are in closest
mid/upper pattern agreement with it, indicate some severe potential
may develop over the south-central CONUS day 6/19th-20th or day
7/20th-21st, then shift eastward into the Southeast thereafter.  At
this time, too much spread exists in guidance to outline specific
15% unconditional severe area(s).

...Edwards.. 11/13/2023

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