Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 08:09:06

FOUS30 KWBC 130809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

Surface reflection beginning to take shape over the western Gulf
which has been well forecast within the deterministic guidance.
Deep moisture plume with Gulf and eastern Pacific connection(s)
continues to funnel northward into southern and eastern TX and
will translate to the northeast over the course of the period.
Primary convective focus will remain offshore, but weak elevated
CAPE signatures across the TX coast on the latest hi-res bufr
soundings indicates a non-zero risk of thunder over a narrow
corridor extending from Corpus Christi up into the Upper Texas
coast through the afternoon hours today. This correlates well
within the guidance for where the heaviest rainfall is forecast,
and reflected within the associated probabilities in both the
latest NBM and 00z HREF. A general 1-2" with a max of 3" is
forecast along the stretch from Corpus Christi up through Houston
into the coastal Parishes across southwest LA. If you want to
follow a general landmark for the proximity of heaviest rainfall,
look for along and south of I-10 as the primary focus for the D1
MRGL where probability of exceeding 1"/6-hrs is highest at around
50-60% on the 01z NBM and 30-40% on the 00z HREF. Rates will be
the deterring factor for higher than the low-end Marginal Risk,
especially considering the antecedent conditions leading into the
forecast rainfall which had been very dry. This will be primarily
beneficial rainfall, but localized flooding within the urbanized
areas along the TX/LA Gulf coast cannot be ruled out.

Kleebauer





Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UDqNw_8vXAT5rsWbUm-siXUnL_AVxM3zn1dnBW0EHll=
dqhca2swumS_bJ2B2TfGM1I6e3V2scWa84C4fMbgpC7tS3k$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UDqNw_8vXAT5rsWbUm-siXUnL_AVxM3zn1dnBW0EHll=
dqhca2swumS_bJ2B2TfGM1I6e3V2scWa84C4fMbg0blDFdk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UDqNw_8vXAT5rsWbUm-siXUnL_AVxM3zn1dnBW0EHll=
dqhca2swumS_bJ2B2TfGM1I6e3V2scWa84C4fMbgzbbuK4E$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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