Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 08:06:58 ACUS03 KWNS 130806 SWODY3 SPC AC 130805 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast States to portions of Florida. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level split-flow pattern will remain over the CONUS, with a fast, nearly zonal northern stream near the Canadian border remaining too detached from enough moisture/instability to support a deep-convective threat. In the southern stream, a perturbation now over Chihuahua should move eastward slowly across the central Gulf Coast States and north-central Gulf through the period. An embedded 500-mb low may move approximately along I-10 from southeastern LA to the western FL Panhandle. The corresponding surface-850-mb low should begin the period near the mouth of the Mississippi River, then shift eastward along a slowly northward-moving baroclinic zone. The surface warm front is progged to remain south of the northern Gulf Coast, extending southeastward to near southernmost mainland FL early, then drifting northward. Meanwhile a cold front should move eastward across the central Gulf south of the low. A corridor of well-modified boundary-layer air is expected to shift eastward across the east-central/northeastern Gulf, parallel to and ahead of the cold front, with theta-e optimized by marine thermal/ moisture fluxes over and near the Loop Current. This may support considerable convection over the open Gulf, including scattered thunderstorms. However, surface theta-e will diminish eastward/ northeastward through the warm-frontal zone and be relatively minimized across the inland FL Peninsula through the period. This, the slow timing of the wave aloft and associated surface frontal progressions, and weak deep shear where surface-based lift may occur, suggest any overland severe threat is too conditional and low-end to include in an outlook for now. Thunder potential with elevated convection will exist over parts of the central Gulf Coast States southeastward across parts of FL through the period, including near the surface front. Coverage may be greatest over parts of MS/AL where clusters of thunderstorms are possible, rooted in a persistent low-level warm-advection/moisture-transport regime poleward of the low-level cyclone track. ...Edwards.. 11/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .