Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 13 2023 05:27:29 ACUS01 KWNS 130527 SWODY1 SPC AC 130525 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along portions of the western/central Gulf Coast, a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ....Southern US... Northern Mexico short-wave trough is forecast to eject into west TX by 14/00z, but a weaker low-amplitude short-wave trough may precede this feature, at a lower latitude, ensuring the main surface low holds off the TX Coast. Latest model guidance maintains the primary surface baroclinic zone offshore through the period. Late this evening, organized convection is noted along this boundary, roughly 50 miles east of Padre Island. As a result, the primary focus for organized thunderstorms will remain just offshore. However, elevated convection should evolve within a warm advection corridor from the coastal Plain of TX into the LA Gulf Coastal region where forecast buoyancy supports lightning. Downstream, weak showers are currently moving inland along the central FL Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings maintain weak buoyancy through the period as roughly 3km deep easterly flow will persist Monday. Some of the deeper updrafts may generate lightning, but overall this activity should remain isolated. ....Lower Great Lakes... Strong 500mb speed max will translate southeast across lower MI into central PA by late afternoon which will allow much cooler temperatures to spread across the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates will steepen significantly as this occurs and weak buoyancy will develop over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. Some risk for lightning will be noted with convection across this region. ...Darrow/Moore.. 11/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .