Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 12 2023 12:32:51

ACUS01 KWNS 121232
SWODY1
SPC AC 121231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle
Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected.

....Synopsis...
Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the
Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest
coast.  Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these
troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely.  Farther south, a weak
southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja
toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday.  Very weak midlevel buoyancy
may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted
in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for
an outlook area.  A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of
Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development.  Some weak elevated
CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning
flashes near the lower/middle TX coast.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023

$$

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