Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 12 2023 09:49:50

ACUS48 KWNS 120949
SWOD48
SPC AC 120948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of
thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday
night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely
remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat
will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where
surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F.

From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic
Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move
into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry
airmass already in place.

....Sunday/Day 8...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast
to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture
advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints
increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas.
Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could
develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass
from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe
threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular
scenario is considerable at this range.

...Broyles.. 11/12/2023

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