Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 12 2023 08:05:38

FOUS30 KWBC 120805
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...

Deep southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow ahead of a low/trough
moving across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. will
combine with strengthening low level easterly winds to support
increasing moisture across Deep South Texas.  Model soundings show
deep saturation through the column, with PWs climbing to around 2
inches from the lower Texas Coast back into the Rio Grande Valley
later today.  This moisture interacting with increasing ascent
afforded by mid level energy and favorable upper jet forcing will
support organized rainfall and the potential for locally heavy
accumulations across the region.  Models continue to indicate that
a lack instability will diminish the potential for heavy rainfall
rates.  However, a deep warm cloud layer and saturation through
the low to mid levels will likely support efficient rates and the
potential for runoff concerns, especially in poor drainage and
urbanized areas.  A Slight Risk was maintained although the area
was reduced based on overnight model trends.  The general
consensus, including the CAMs, indicated a more southerly axis for
heavy amounts, therefore both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas
were trimmed and confined mostly to Deep South Texas.  Expect the
greater threat for excessive rain will be largely confined to the
immediate coast where instability may be enough to support heavier
rainfall rates.

Pereira=20



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58v9B1uxr_EW7m3AnLI7Cb4KLQVVWb5krYXv6BNDFWt5=
sA8nSu03EEempRUYrz83A7bAIA3kDy2rYvGqfoixWaXN9JY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58v9B1uxr_EW7m3AnLI7Cb4KLQVVWb5krYXv6BNDFWt5=
sA8nSu03EEempRUYrz83A7bAIA3kDy2rYvGqfoixJXJfdSc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!58v9B1uxr_EW7m3AnLI7Cb4KLQVVWb5krYXv6BNDFWt5=
sA8nSu03EEempRUYrz83A7bAIA3kDy2rYvGqfoixssq4Uq0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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