Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 12 2023 04:46:20

ACUS01 KWNS 120446
SWODY1
SPC AC 120444

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle
Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected.

....Lower/Middle TX Coast...

Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject
slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow
will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature
translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak
surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the
south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front
will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse
rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to
weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest
upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near
1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of
penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge.

...Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023

$$

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