Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 11 2023 00:37:38

ACUS01 KWNS 110037
SWODY1
SPC AC 110035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes remain possible along parts of the Gulf
Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington.

....01z Update...

Neutral/weak height rises will be noted along the Gulf Coast tonight
within a broader southwesterly flow regime. The only short-wave
trough of significance is currently located over the southern High
Plains, and this feature will dampen significantly as it shifts
downstream. As a result, there will be little influence along the
immediate Gulf Coast. Offshore flow should persist across the
western/central Gulf Coast, but weak warm advection may be adequate
for a few deeper elevated updrafts from southeast LA into southern
AL. While buoyancy is quite weak, moist profiles may be adequate for
a flash or two of lightning with the most robust updrafts.

00z sounding from UIL is saturated through about 6km with only
modest lapse rates. Strong midlevel speed max will approach the WA
Coast by daybreak as thermal profiles cool/steepen in association
with an inland-moving cold front. Forecast soundings suggest weak
buoyancy will develop late across this region, supporting potential
for a few flashes of lightning with near-frontal convection.

...Darrow.. 11/11/2023

$$

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