Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 19:32:08

ACUS01 KWNS 101932
SWODY1
SPC AC 101930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf
Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington.

....Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity has diminished across portions of southern New
Mexico and adjacent Far West Texas, with appreciable lightning
activity not expected the remainder of the period.  As such, the
thunder area across this region is being removed.

Elsewhere, no changes to the existing outlook appear necessary at
this time, with a few lightning flashes still expected across
portions of northwestern Washington, and the Gulf Coast region,
later in the period.

...Goss.. 11/10/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/

....Synopsis...
Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level
troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific
Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler
air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain
possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before
mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat.
Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the
Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture
advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few
lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the
approach of a mid-level trough.

$$

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