Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 15:56:23

FOUS30 KWBC 101556
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER TEXAS COAST...

16Z Update...

The previous discussion summarizes today's Marginal Risk threat
well along the central and lower Texas coast. While instability is
hard to come by, PWs according to NAEFS are impressive for
early-mid November. The 12Z soundings out of BRO and CRP measured
2.11" and 2.00" PWs respectively, but there was a reduction in
instability over CRP compared to BRO. PWs will reach as high as
the 99.5th climatological percentile over the Lower Rio Grande
Valley and as far north as Corpus Christi at 18Z today. As the
cold front moves south, instability will gradually decrease over
the Lower Rio Grande Valley. In addition, the 12Z RAP showed warm
cloud layers along the lower Texas coast that were approaching
14,000' in depth and low-mid layer RH values >95% later this
afternoon. These parameters support efficient warm rainfall
processes, but the lack of instability combined with higher FFGs
from drier than normal conditions over the past month will limit
the flash flood potential. Flooding in pour drainage areas cannot
be fully ruled out, particularly in more urbanized communities.

Mullinax

---Previous Discussion---

Front pushing south across the region this morning is expected to
stall near the coast today.  Warm, moist southwest flow aloft will
support PWs at or above 2 inches along the coast.  This moisture
along with large-scale ascent afforded in part by right-entrance
region upper jet forcing will help generate widespread
precipitation across the region.  While instability will be
limited, a saturated air column may support efficient rates.  A
Marginal Risk was introduced highlighting the area where the HREF
is showing high neighborhood probabilities for additional amounts
of 3 inches or more.  This includes portions of the Texas coast
that received locally heavy amounts yesterday and where 3-hr FFG
values have dropped below 0.25 inch in some locations.

Pereira




Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8C2TDgIyO_k-YDfE2pPz3Td0DhFjctizkJy4rJy1sV5J=
MP1Z2VqISPEGXIEl0N7RSAupYRoIoedchGlDrPr8j5zWAEs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8C2TDgIyO_k-YDfE2pPz3Td0DhFjctizkJy4rJy1sV5J=
MP1Z2VqISPEGXIEl0N7RSAupYRoIoedchGlDrPr8U8sjBE8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8C2TDgIyO_k-YDfE2pPz3Td0DhFjctizkJy4rJy1sV5J=
MP1Z2VqISPEGXIEl0N7RSAupYRoIoedchGlDrPr8GtraNzE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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