Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 14:48:48

ACUS48 KWNS 101448
SWOD48
SPC AC 101447

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande
Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to
the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is
forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of
the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western
Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS
development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower
to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough
during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect
southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday
night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled
out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of
low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive
solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible
on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is
that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part
of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the
water.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S.
on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave
trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the
western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is
forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the
Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm
development.

...Broyles.. 11/10/2023

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